The U.S. again questions China on the Phase I trade deal
Oil surges, adding pressure to the inflation outlookNEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equity markets fell on Monday despite strong manufacturing data and the dollar eased, as investors worried about the potential for rising U.S.-China trade tensions and rising inflation as oil prices surged to multi-year highs. Oil jumped after Reuters reported the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies would stick to their current output policy instead of boosting supply more.
Brent crude futures jumped $2.27 to $81.55 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose $1.97 to $77.85 a barrel. New orders for U.S.-made goods accelerated in August, pointing to sustained strength in manufacturing even as economic growth appeared to slow in the third quarter due to shortages of raw materials and labor.
Data last week showed high inflation sharply cutting into consumer spending in July, with a moderate rebound in August." The negatives are building and have been building for the last several weeks during this bit of a downturn that we've seen," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel.
Top U.S. trade negotiator Katherine Tai pledged to unwind some tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on goods from China while pressing Beijing to keep its promises. Tai said Washington seeks to stop China from pouring billions of dollars of state subsidies into its semiconductor, steel, and other industries.
"In the past, escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions has sparked risk-off among investors," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.MSCI's all-country world index fell 1.1% while the broad STOXX Europe 600 index slid 0.41%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.04%, the S&P 500 slipped 1.39% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.26%. The dollar weakened from last week's one-year highs as investors looked ahead to the release on Friday of September employment data, which could signal when the Federal Reserve begins to taper asset purchases.
Gold prices rose to a more than one-week high on the weaker U.S. currency. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, fell 0.16% to 93.798. The euro rose 0.22% to $1.1620, while the Japanese yen traded down 0.13% to $110.9100.U.S. Treasury yields rose as the market fretted about the lack of a debt ceiling fix in the U.S. Congress.
"The market is really focused on Washington D.C. and the uncertainty of being unable to come to an agreement on the infrastructure, social spending plan, and raising the debt limit," said Thomas Hayes, managing member at hedge fund Greal Hill Capital LLC. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 1 basis point to 1.4772%, after trading above 1.5%.
Francois Savary, CIO of Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners, said markets were increasingly pricing in a stagflation scenario of lackluster growth and high inflation, a headwind for stocks that have scaled a series of record highs and trade at expensive multiples.
"You can live with highly valued markets if you have the prospect of economic growth ahead. But if you think stagflation is becoming an issue and the only option is to tighten policy and kill economic activity, that's not good for equities," Savary said. Adding to the growth worries, investor morale in the eurozone fell for the third month in a row in October. Source.